Thursday, October 28, 2004
This semester, I am doing some independent research in plasma physics, which gives me a chance to continue my plasma education, as well as interact with some of the plasma physicists here at Cornell. By and large, American plasma physicists are a morose, depressed lot... and this is understandable, given that funding for research in fusion energy has been curtailed over the past couple of decades to a mere third of what it was during the oil crisis of the 1970s. Back then, at the height of American research in plasma physics, American plasma physicists made optimistic predictions of demonstrating a commercially viable fusion reactor at the turn of the century. The turn of the century has come and gone, with no such demonstration reactor, and now, with their funding cut, the same plasma physicists make pessimistic predictions of commercially viable fusion power at around 2050.
However, underlying this gloomy outlook there seems to be the assumption that if controlled fusion is not achieved in America, it will not be achieved anywhere. In my opinion, this is not a reasonable assumption. Lack of funding for fusion reseach is an American phenomenon, and American plasma physicists overlook the political reasons for their lack of funding: American policy makers have committed to fossil fuels to meet the future energy needs of this nation. Even now, tens of billions of dollars are being invested in securing American control of the world's fossil fuel reserves, most of which is located in the Middle East. When so much "investment" is being devoted to securing fossil fuel resources, it makes sense that only a couple hundred million dollars are left over to pursue alternative energy sources such as fusion energy.
The situation is different for the rest of the world. In particular, the industrialized nations of Western Europe and East Asia have been standing on the sidelines for the past three years, as America consolidated its control of the lion's share of the world's oil supply. (According to the CIA world factbook, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait alone account for 46% of the world's known oil reserves. The American military is present in all three countries.) For an industrialized nation, energy is just as vital a lifeline as food, and control of Middle Eastern oil gives America much geopolitical leverage against the rest of the industrialized world. Policy makers in the rest of the world understand how precarious their energy futures are, without a viable alternative energy source to American oil.
The largest reserve of oil that is not under the influence of, or directly controlled by the Americans, is in Russia. If you have been following the news in Asia over the past month or two, you will have noticed that the leaders of Japan, China, and South Korea have all recently visited Russian President Putin. Do you really think they spent that time discussing an insignificant problem such as North Korea? Of course not... Koizumi, Hu and Roh all met Putin to negociate purchase of Russian oil, so that the East Asian nations they represented would not be entirely dependent on oil controlled by America.
Considering how tenuous the hold of Western European and East Asian nations on their energy supplies have become, it is not surprising that they are aggressively pursuing the development of fusion power as a viable energy source. France and Japan in particular have committed themselves to spending vastly more on fusion research than America, and it is my opinion that controlled fusion will be achieved by an international team of plasma physicists (ITER) led by these two nations. And considering how radically polarized the control of energy has become in today's world, I think that the pressure will be on for the Europeans and the Japanese plasma physicists to succeed much earlier than 2050.
The pessimistic outlook of the American plasma physicists that I work with, from my point of view, is overly America-centric.
However, underlying this gloomy outlook there seems to be the assumption that if controlled fusion is not achieved in America, it will not be achieved anywhere. In my opinion, this is not a reasonable assumption. Lack of funding for fusion reseach is an American phenomenon, and American plasma physicists overlook the political reasons for their lack of funding: American policy makers have committed to fossil fuels to meet the future energy needs of this nation. Even now, tens of billions of dollars are being invested in securing American control of the world's fossil fuel reserves, most of which is located in the Middle East. When so much "investment" is being devoted to securing fossil fuel resources, it makes sense that only a couple hundred million dollars are left over to pursue alternative energy sources such as fusion energy.
The situation is different for the rest of the world. In particular, the industrialized nations of Western Europe and East Asia have been standing on the sidelines for the past three years, as America consolidated its control of the lion's share of the world's oil supply. (According to the CIA world factbook, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait alone account for 46% of the world's known oil reserves. The American military is present in all three countries.) For an industrialized nation, energy is just as vital a lifeline as food, and control of Middle Eastern oil gives America much geopolitical leverage against the rest of the industrialized world. Policy makers in the rest of the world understand how precarious their energy futures are, without a viable alternative energy source to American oil.
The largest reserve of oil that is not under the influence of, or directly controlled by the Americans, is in Russia. If you have been following the news in Asia over the past month or two, you will have noticed that the leaders of Japan, China, and South Korea have all recently visited Russian President Putin. Do you really think they spent that time discussing an insignificant problem such as North Korea? Of course not... Koizumi, Hu and Roh all met Putin to negociate purchase of Russian oil, so that the East Asian nations they represented would not be entirely dependent on oil controlled by America.
Considering how tenuous the hold of Western European and East Asian nations on their energy supplies have become, it is not surprising that they are aggressively pursuing the development of fusion power as a viable energy source. France and Japan in particular have committed themselves to spending vastly more on fusion research than America, and it is my opinion that controlled fusion will be achieved by an international team of plasma physicists (ITER) led by these two nations. And considering how radically polarized the control of energy has become in today's world, I think that the pressure will be on for the Europeans and the Japanese plasma physicists to succeed much earlier than 2050.
The pessimistic outlook of the American plasma physicists that I work with, from my point of view, is overly America-centric.
